Tax forecasting of Chongqing private economy based on exponential smoothing model of principal component regression

• 1、Chongqing University,College of Mathematics and Statistics,Chongqing,401331

Abstract：Since the reform and opening up, chongqing\'s private economy is booming, and plays a significant role in stabilizing growth, promoting innovation, increasing employment and improving people\'s livelihood, and becoming an indispensable and important force in promoting economic and social development. In the face of the new changes in the domestic and foreign environment and the new situation of the transformation of the economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development, through the perspective of taxation, it is found that the development of chongqing\'s private economy is facing the dual pressure of enterprise transformation and the market environment. better grasp the development trend of the private economy in chongqing and its tax, this paper uses the principal component regression of the exponential smoothing model. The main research method is the principal component regression and Holt exponential smoothing, with the private economy in chongqing from 2006 to 2016 tax data to predict trend of 2017 and 2018 tax, and compared with other ordinary exponential smoothing model predicted results, it is concluded that the principal component regression of the exponential smoothing model is more scientific, accurate and applicable in respect of taxation forecasting.

Keywords： principal component regression exponential smoothing model private economy tax forecasting