基于系统动力学对咸阳市天然气消费量预测
首发时间:2019-08-16
摘要:天然气作为一种清洁基于系统动力学的咸阳市天然气消费量预测能源,在能源消费结构中逐年增加,已经成为环境治理和保障民生的重要手段。本文以咸阳市为例,在对其天然气消费现状进行分析的基础上,探讨了人口、经济发展水平、产业结构、以及能源因素对咸阳市天然气消费量的影响,然后构建了咸阳市天然气消费量系统动力学预测模。通过咸阳市天然气总公司2010-2018年天然气消费量的历史数据对咸阳市2019-2023年天然气消费量进行了预测,可为未来进一步开展天然气消费量预测研究提供参考。
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Prediction of natural gas consumption in xianyang city based on system dynamics
Abstract:Natural gas, as a kind of clean energy, has been increasing year by year in the energy consumption structure, and has become an important means of environmental governance and ensuring people\'s livelihood. This paper takes Xianyang city as an example. Based on the analysis of its gas consumption status,the influence of population, economic development level, industrial structure and energy factors on natural gas consumption in Xianyang city was discussed. Then the system dynamics prediction model of natural gas consumption in Xianyang city is constructed. Through the historical data of natural gas consumption of Xianyang natural gas corporation from 2010 to 2018, the natural gas consumption of Xianyang city from 2019 to 2023 is predicted,it can provide reference for further research on gas consumption prediction in the future.
Keywords: natural gas Xianyang consumption forecast system dynamics
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