信贷扩张对经济增长的拉动效应:"信贷扩张之谜"的解释
首发时间:2019-08-21
摘要:后金融危机时期,各国信贷扩张对经济增长的影响持续减弱,信贷增速与经济增速出现相反趋势,即"信贷扩张之谜"。为解释"信贷扩张之谜",论文以新兴经济体中的金砖五国和新钻六国为样本,采用1996-2017年的跨国面板数据估计非线性变斜率面板模型以及高斯混合模型,对信贷扩张与经济增长间的关系进行实证检验,判断两者之间是否存在非线性关系以及信贷扩张对经济增长拉动效率是否存在国别差异,在此基础上进一步实证检验了信贷扩张效率国别差异的影响因素。结果表明,信贷扩张对经济增长影响具有非线性性,先单调递增然后单调递减;当信贷扩张未达到门限值时,信贷扩张能推动经济增长,提升经济增长活力,但是当超过这个门限值,信贷扩张张将加剧资源错配与资本脱实向虚,经济增长抑制机制被激发。通过对各国信贷扩张效率差异的决定因素的研究表明,金融深化程度、股票市场效率、经济规模、外债比重、法律权利力度指数的主要决定因素。论文丰富了现有信贷扩张对经济增长影响的机制,为后金融危机时期的"信贷扩张之谜"提供了一种解释。
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The Pulling Effect of Credit Expansion on Economic Growth: An Explanation of the Mystery of Credit Expansion
Abstract:In the post-financial crisis period, the impact of credit expansion on economic growth continued to weaken, and the opposite trend of credit growth and economic growth appeared, namely "the mystery of credit expansion". In order to explain the mystery of credit expansion, this paper uses the panel data from 1996 to 2017 to estimate the non-linear variable slope panel model of the whole BRICS countries and the six new drilling countries in the emerging economies. It makes an empirical test on the relationship between credit expansion and economic growth, and judges whether there is a non-linear relationship between them and whether there is a credit relationship between them. On the basis of whether there are differences in the efficiency of credit expansion among different countries, this paper further empirically tests the influencing factors of the efficiency of credit expansion among different countries. The results show that the impact of credit expansion on economic growth is non-linear. First, it increases monotonously and then decreases monotonously. There is a threshold value for the extent of credit expansion. When credit expansion does not reach the threshold, credit expansion can promote economic growth and enhance the vitality of economic growth. But when it exceeds this threshold, credit expansion will aggravate the mismatch of resources and capital, and stimulate the restraint mechanism of economic growth. Through the study of the determinants of the differences in the efficiency of credit expansion in different countries, it is found that the main determinants are the degree of financial deepening, the efficiency of stock market, the scale of economy, the proportion of foreign debt and the strength of legal rights. This paper enriches the existing mechanism of the impact of credit expansion on economic growth, and provides an explanation for the "mystery of credit expansion" in the post-financial crisis period.
Keywords: Credit Expansion Economic Growth Threshold Value Credit Expansion Mystery
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信贷扩张对经济增长的拉动效应:"信贷扩张之谜"的解释
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