改进多变量灰色模型在网络系统态势值预测中的应用
首发时间:2019-11-06
摘要:网络的安全态势受多种因素的影响,本文采用一种改进的灰色模型用于网络安全态势预测。本文首先选定合理的指标,指标作为变量,构造出基于积分变换的灰色GM(1,n)模型,然后通过马尔可夫方法修正残差,构建出用于网络安全态势预测的多变量灰色马尔可夫模型。选取国家互联网应急中心(CNCERT/CC)网站公布的安全态势周报作为实验数据,通过与其他模型的态势预测结果对比,表明本文使用的多变量灰色马尔可夫模型在网络安全态势预测中较其他方法精度更高。
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Application of Improved Multivariate Grey Model in Network System Situational Value Prediction
Abstract:Network security situation is affected by many factors. This paper uses an improved grey model to predict network security situation. Firstly, a grey GM (1, n) model based on integral transformation is constructed by choosing reasonable indexes as variables, and then a multi-variable grey Markov model for network security situation prediction is constructed by correcting residual error with Markov method. Choosing the security situation weekly report published by the National Internet Emergency Response Center (CNCERT/CC) website as the experimental data, and comparing with the situation prediction results of other models, it shows that the multi-variable grey Markov model used in this paper is more accurate than other methods in network security situation prediction.
Keywords: Network Security Situation Prediction Grey Model Markov Method
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