祁连山气温变化与海拔依赖性研究
首发时间:2019-12-16
摘要:利用中国祁连山24个气象站点的气温观测值,基于线性回归方法、Mann-Kendall突变分析、Morlet小波分析等方法研究了祁连山气温变化特征,并利用相关分析方法分析了祁连山气温变化的海拔依赖性特征。研究结果表明:(1)从整体上看,从1979至2017年,气温呈现波动增长的趋势,其中春季和夏季的增温速率较快,秋季和冬季的增温速率较慢;(2)祁连山气温自90年代初开始呈现上升趋势,四个季节的气温突变时间分别为1995年、1996年、2002年和1997年。(3)祁连山气温整体上呈现不同程度的波动变化。年均温较明显的周期变化为10-20年,且有3-5年的振荡。春季均温在1995年后有3-7年的振荡。夏季均温两个较明显的周期变化为10-20年和2-6年。秋季均温两个较明显的周期变化为2-10年和10-20年。冬季有两个较明显的周期变化范围,分别是10-20年和3-8年。(4)海拔依赖性增温特征显著,高海拔地区的气温增温速率要高于低海拔地区。
For information in English, please click here
Temperature changes and Elevation dependent warming over the Qilian Mountains, China
Abstract:Based on the temperature observations from 24 meteorological stations in Qilian Mountain of China, the temperature changes in Qilian Mountain are studied by using linear regression method, Mann-Kendall analysis and Morlet wavelet analysis. The elevation dependent warming in Qilian Mountain is analyzed by correlation analysis. The results show that: (1) in general, the temperature showed a warming trend with fluctuates from 1979 to 2017. The temperature increasing trend in spring and summer is in a higher rate, while that in autumn and winter is in a lower rate; (2) the temperature began to increase since the early 1990s, and the temperature mutation time in four seasons were 1995, 1996, 2002 and 1997, respectively; (3) the temperature fluctuates in different degrees in the Qilian Mountain. The periodic change of annual average temperature is 10-20 years with a 3-5 years oscillation. The mean temperature in spring oscillates is 3-7 years mainly after 1995. The two obvious periods of mean temperature in summer are 10-20 years and 2-6 years. The two obvious periods of mean temperature in autumn are 2-10 years and 10-20 years. There are two obvious periods in winter, 10-20 years and 3-8 years, respectively. (4) The characteristics of elevation dependent warming are significant, and the warming trend in high altitude area is higher than that in low altitude area.
Keywords: Temperature Qilian Mountains Elevation dependent warming Increasing trend
引用
No.****
动态公开评议
共计0人参与
勘误表
祁连山气温变化与海拔依赖性研究
评论
全部评论0/1000