基于非齐次泊松过程的立体车库服务系统仿真研究
首发时间:2020-05-22
摘要:自2016年以来,因其满足用户出行"最后一公里"的需求,具有短途出行和绿色环保等优势,共享单车发展十分迅速。共享单车常分布在地铁、居民区、大型商超、校园等人流量密集场所。在共享单车大规模发展的同时,公共资源被占用问题严重,用户到达站点无车可用的状况时有发生,为进一步优化共享单车资源配置,提高共享单车服务的响应率,适应绿色发展要求,共享单车立体车库应运而生。目前国内的半封闭式共享单车立体车库容易导致单车出入库较慢的情况,在用车高峰时段,过长的出入库时间等因素影响了用户体验,从而损失了用户流量。鉴于此,本文以2017年mobike的实际数据为例,采用大数据和Kolmogorov-Smirnov分析方法,研究共享单车用户的到达规律。研究结果表明:用户到达符合非齐次泊松过程。进一步,对立体车库的用户等待时长进行仿真分析。仿真结果表明:合理设置服务台个数有助于缓解单车出入库较慢、用户等待时间过长的现象。
关键词: 共享单车 立体车库 Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验 非齐次泊松过程 排队系统
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Simulation study of stereo garage service system based on non-homogeneous poisson process
Abstract:Since 2016, bike-sharing has developed rapidly due to its advantages such as meeting users\' demand for "last kilometer" travel, short-distance travel and environmental protection. Shared bikes are often distributed in metro, residential areas, large supermarkets, campuses and other crowded places. With the large-scale development of shared bikes, the public resources have been occupied seriously, and there is no available car when the users arrive at the site from time to time. In order to optimize the allocation of shared bike resources, improve the response rate of shared bike service, and adapt to the requirements of green development, the shared bike three-dimensional garage emerges at the historic moment. At present, the semi-closed Shared bike stereo garages in China tend to lead to the slow loading and unloading of bicycles. During the peak hours of the use of cars, the long loading and unloading time and other factors affect the user experience, thus losing the user flow. In view of this, this paper takes the actual data of 2017 mobike as an example, adopts big data and Kolmogorov-Smirnov testto analyze the arrival law of the bike-sharing users, the simluation results shows that the arrival law of the bike-sharing users obeys the non-homogeneous poisson process. Furthermore, the simulation analysis of the waiting time of users in the three-dimensional garage is carried out, and the simulation results show that the reasonable setting of the number of service stations is helpful to alleviate the phenomenon of slow loading and unloading of bicycles and long waiting time of users.
Keywords: Shared bike Stereo garage Kolmogorov-Smirnovk test Non-homogeneous poisson process Queuing system
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