与管理层的校友关系对分析师盈余预测行为的影响--来自中国证券市场的证据
首发时间:2020-09-21
摘要:本文以2009-2019年的分析师预测数据作为研究对象,试图研究与上市公司董监高的校友关系对分析师的盈余预测准确度以及乐观性偏差是否有影响。结果表明,与上市公司高层的校友关系可以显著提升分析师预测的准确度,而对分析师的乐观性偏差无显著影响;在控制预测准确度时,与上市公司高管的校友关系使得分析师预测的乐观程度更高;在目标公司规模小、信息披露质量差的情况下,校友关系对分析师盈余预测准确度的影响更大。本文的研究结论有助于为投资者提供参考意见并为证券分析师提供职业发展建议。
关键词: 金融学 证券分析师 校友关系 盈余预测准确度 乐观性偏差
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Dose Alumni Relations with Management Matters: Evidence from The Chinese Stock Market
Abstract:Based on the analysts data from 2009 to 2019, this paper tries to research whether alumni relationships have impacts on the accuracy and optimism bias of analysts\' earnings forecast. The results show that the alumni relationships with top-managers for the listed companies can significantly improve the accuracy of the analysts but has no impact on optimism bias. When accuracy is controlled, analysts who have alumni relationships have a significantly higher level of outlook than those who have not. When the listed company is small in size and has poor information disclosure level, alumni relationship has a greater impact on the accuracy of analyst earnings prediction. The conclusions of this paper are helpful to provide reference advice for investors and career development advice for securities analysts.
Keywords: Finance;Securities analyst Alumni relations Earnings forecast accuracy Optimism bias
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与管理层的校友关系对分析师盈余预测行为的影响--来自中国证券市场的证据
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