降雨和地震条件下浅层黄土滑坡三维稳定性评价
首发时间:2020-09-24
摘要:在我国西北黄土地区,受黄土遇水强度骤降的影响,浅层黄土滑坡分布广泛且频发,已造成大量人员伤亡和财产损失。通常降雨和地震是黄土滑坡最频繁和最活跃的触发因素。近年来,降雨和地震耦合作用诱发大量黄土滑坡的事件在黄土高原也时有发生。尽管地震和降雨耦合效应下会严重加剧浅层黄土滑坡的失稳概率和灾害风险,但是当前仍缺少对这类滑坡事件的定量灾害评价研究。因此,本文以兰州市大沙沟流域浅层黄土滑坡为研究对象,整合降雨渗透模型到黄土斜坡三维确定性模型中,评价不同降雨和地震耦合效应研究区浅层黄土滑坡稳定性,用混淆矩阵法和ROC曲线法评价稳定性评价预测的结果。本研究结果发现,整合降雨入渗和地震影响的三维确定性模型,对流域尺度浅层黄土滑坡稳定性评价具有较好效果,能作为降雨和地震诱发黄土滑坡灾害评价和早期预警的工具,对加强不同尺度极端事件下黄土滑坡灾害时空灾害评价和预测具有重要参考价值。
关键词: 地质工程 浅层黄土滑坡 地震 降雨 渗透模拟 稳定性评价
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Three-dimensional stability evaluation of shallow loess landslides under rainfall and earthquake conditions
Abstract:In the loess area of northwestern China, affected by the sudden water intensity of the loess, shallow loess landslides are widely distributed and frequent, landslides caused a large number of casualties and property losses. Usually rainfall and earthquakes are the most frequent and active triggers for loess landslides. In recent years, a large number of loess landslides have been induced by the coupling of rainfall and earthquakes on the Loess Plateau. Although the coupling effect of earthquake and rainfall will seriously aggravate the instability probability and disaster risk of shallow loess landslides, there is still a lack of quantitative disaster evaluation research on such landslide events. Therefore, this paper takes the shallow loess landslide in the Dashagou watershed of Lanzhou City as the research object, integrates the rainfall penetration model into the three-dimensional deterministic model of the loess slope, and evaluates the stability of the shallow loess landslide in the study area with different rainfall and seismic coupling effects. Method and ROC curve method to evaluate the results of stability evaluation prediction. The results of this study found that the integration of a three-dimensional deterministic model of rainfall infiltration and earthquake effects has a good effect on the stability evaluation of shallow loess landslides at the watershed scale, and can be used as a tool for the assessment and early warning of rainfall and earthquake-induced loess landslides. It is of great reference value to strengthen the spatiotemporal disaster assessment and prediction of loess landslide disasters under different scales of extreme events
Keywords: geological engineering shallow loess landslide earthquake rainfall seepage simulation stability evaluation
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