中国能源期货市场中投资者情绪的传染研究
首发时间:2020-10-16
摘要:针对中国能源期货市场中投资者情绪传染以及投资者情绪影响能源期货收益的问题,本文通过构建期货投资者情绪指数,分析了中国能源期货市场中代表性能源之间投资者情绪的传染效应,在将投资者情绪分解为传染性和特质性投资者情绪之后,进一步研究了投资者情绪对能源期货收益的影响和机制。结果发现,首先,在控制了相应的宏观经济变量和市场情绪指标之后,三者之间仍然存在显著的传染效应,说明投资者情绪传染在我国能源期货市场中是存在的。其次,传染性投资者情绪是除燃油外造成能源期货收益变动的一个主要驱动因素。再次,本文将投资者情绪分解为传染性和特质性投资者情绪,进而揭示了二者对能源期货收益的联合影响。
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Contagion of investor sentiment in Chinese Energy Futures Markets
Abstract:Aiming at the issue of investor sentiment contagion in Chinese energy futures markets, this paper analyzes the contagion effect of investor sentiment among energy futures by constructing a new investor sentiment index. After decomposing investor sentiment into contagious and idiosyncratic investor sentiment, the influence of investor sentiment on energy futures returns are further studied. Results showed that after controlling the corresponding macroeconomic variables and market\'s sentiment indicators, there is still a significant contagion effect among energy futures, which indicates that investor sentiment contagion exists in Chinese energy futures market. And contagious investor sentiment is a major driving factor for changes in energy futures\' returns except fuel. In addition, this article decomposes investor sentiment into contagious and idiosyncratic investor sentiment, and then reveals the combined impact of the two variables on energy futures returns.
Keywords: energy futures investor sentiment emotional contagion coking coal and coke fuel
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