基于Himawari-8数据的降水估计方法研究
首发时间:2021-02-09
摘要:降水是地球水循环系统的重要组成部分,具有重要的气象学、气候学、水文学意义,因此精准反演降水一直是一项颇具意义的科学研究。本文选用Himawari-8卫星的图像数据和地面降水数据,采用随机森林(Ramdom Forest)方法、最小二乘法方法拟合建立降水反演模型,对云南东川县区域进行降水估测研究。研究结果表明:云顶亮温与雨强关系可拟合为指数函数关系,且单调下降,应用随机森林算法能大幅提高反演精度,且对中到大雨降水反演效果较好。本文建立的降水反演模型,准确率高,在降水空报率上有所降低,在一定程度上解决了空报和误差问题。
关键词: Himawari-8卫星 随机森林 最小二乘法 定量降水估计
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Research on precipitation estimation method based on Himawari-8 data
Abstract:Precipitation is an important part of the earth\'s water cycle system and has important meteorological, climatological, and hydrological significance. Therefore, accurate precipitation retrieval has always been a significant scientific research. This paper selects Himawari-8 satellite image data and ground precipitation data, adopts random forest method and least square method to fit and establish a precipitation inversion model, and conducts precipitation estimation research in Dongchuan County, Yunnan. The research results show that the relationship between cloud top brightness temperature and rain intensity can be fitted to an exponential function relationship, and it decreases monotonously. The application of random forest algorithm can greatly improve the inversion accuracy, and the inversion effect is better for moderate to heavy rain. The precipitation inversion model established in this paper has a high accuracy rate and has reduced the rate of unannounced precipitation. To a certain extent, the problem of unannounced and error is solved.
Keywords: Himawari-8 Satellite Random Forest Least Squares Method Quantitative Precipitation Estimation
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