34个国家的新冠肺炎疫情防控效果研究
首发时间:2021-03-15
摘要:新冠病毒(COVID-19)在中国发现并传播后,世界上其他国家也相继出现新型冠状病毒大流行。预测新型冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的传播以及相关防控措施的效果成为各国政府最关心的部分。本文通过建立SEIQR模型,分析了从发现本国第一起病例至解除封锁期间,34个国家的主要干预措施(封锁和检测)的效果。对于所有国家,这些干预措施能有效地降低基本再生数Rt,从而大多数国家实现了对疫情的控制。我们的模型也揭示上述国家存在大量的未报道病例,其总感染人数达到2740万,占总人口的1%。我们的研究表明,目前各国的干预措施对减少疫情传播产生了巨大影响,应该持续干预,最终控制病毒的传播。
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Research on the Effect of COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Measures in 34 Countries
Abstract:After novel coronavirus(COVID-19) was discovered and spread in China, other countries in the world also appeared a pandemic of novel coronavirus(COVID-19). Predicting the spread of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the effectiveness of prevention and control measures has become a major concern for governments. In this paper, the SEIQR model was developed to analyze the effects of major interventions (lockdown and detection) in 34 countries from the first case was detected to the lockdown was lifted. For all countries, these interventions were effective in reducing the basic reproductive number Rt.And achieving epidemic control in most countries. Our model also reveals a large number of unreported cases in these countries, where the total number of infections is 27.4 million, representing 1% of the total population. Our results shows that current interventions have had a large effect on reducing transmission.Continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of COVID-19 under control.
Keywords: COVID-19 Prevention and control measures Infection dynamics model Data fitting
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34个国家的新冠肺炎疫情防控效果研究
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