Most people expect that China's accession to the WTO would have a significant and negative effect on agricultural production and rural development. After joining the WTO, China has an obligation not to subsidize agriculture, but without government support, the future of agricultural production and rural development is highly pessimistic. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis on this important issue, drawing lessons of successes and failures in the last half a century of economic development. It concludes that without a fundamental shift in industry policy and regional development strategy, China's rural and agricultural problems cannot be easily resolved.