您当前所在位置: 首页 > 学者

靳祯

  • 34浏览

  • 0点赞

  • 1收藏

  • 0分享

  • 6下载

  • 0评论

  • 引用

期刊论文

Determination of Original Infection Source of H7N9 Avian Influenza by Dynamical Model

靳祯zhang juan jin zhen et. al

Scientific Reports ,-0001,():

URL:

摘要/描述

H7N9, a newly emerging virus in China, travels among poultry and human. Although H7N9 has not aroused massive outbreaks, recurrence in the second half of 2013 makes it essential to control the spread. It is believed that the most effective control measure is to locate the original infection source and cut off the source of infection from human. However, the original infection source and the internal transmission mechanism of the new virus are not totally clear. In order to determine the original infection source of H7N9, we establish a dynamical model with migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry and human population, and view migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry as original infection source respectively to fit the true dynamics during the 2013 pandemic. By comparing the date fitting results and corresponding Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values, we conclude that migrant birds are most likely the original infection source. In addition, we obtain the basic reproduction number in poultry and carry out sensitivity analysis of some parameters.

关键词:

【免责声明】以下全部内容由[靳祯]上传于[2014年08月08日 16时13分08秒],版权归原创者所有。本文仅代表作者本人观点,与本网站无关。本网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。

我要评论

全部评论 0

本学者其他成果

    同领域成果