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刘俊昌

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期刊论文

Study on Building an Econometric Mode1 of Canada's Newsprint Exports to the United States Of America

刘俊昌Liu Junchang G. Hazenberg

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摘要/描述

For predictive purposes and for understanding the re1ationship between the US market and Canadian newsprint producers an econometric model was bui1t. In this study, a simu1taneous-equation model was developed. Which consisted of four equations, one each for the supply, export, consumption and price of newsprint. The period of l955-1986 was covered by this mode1. The data for the years l985 and l986 were reserved to test the predictive, power of the model. In fitting the four equations for the period of 1955-1984.the coefficients of determination, the R-square values, between observed and predicted values were higher than 99 percent. The test results of the forecasting power showed that there was no statistically significant difference between predicted and observed values at the 5 percent level of significance. Sources of forecasting error are expressed as three partial inequality coefficients associated with bias, variance and covariance of predicted and observed values. The error could not be further reduced. The model can be used to make annual predictions and provides an accurate means of predicting demand, supply, consumption and price of Canadian newsprint exports to the United States of America.

【免责声明】以下全部内容由[刘俊昌]上传于[2005年06月20日 19时04分36秒],版权归原创者所有。本文仅代表作者本人观点,与本网站无关。本网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。

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