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期刊论文

A soft computing system for day-ahead electricity price forecasting

牛东晓Dongxiao Niu a Da Liu a Desheng Dash Wu b

Applied Soft Computing xxx(2009)xxx-xxx,-0001,():

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摘要/描述

Hourly energy prices in a competitive electricity market are volatile. Forecast of energy price is key information to help producers and purchasers involved in electricity market to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies so as to maximize their profits. It is difficult to forecast all the hourly prices with only one model for different behaviors of different hourly prices. Neither will it get excellent results with 24 different models to forecast the 24 hourly prices respectively, for there are always not sufficient data to train the models, especially the peak price in summer. This paper proposes a novel technique to forecast day-ahead electricity prices based on Self-Organizing Map neural network (SOM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models. SOM is used to cluster the data automatically according to their similarity to resolve the problem of insufficient training data. SVM models for regression are built on the categories clustered by SOM separately. Parameters of the SVM models are chosen by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm automatically to avoid the arbitrary parameters decision of the tester, improving the forecasting accuracy. The comparison suggests that SOM-SVM-PSO has considerable value in forecasting day-ahead price in Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) market, especially forsummerpeak prices.

【免责声明】以下全部内容由[牛东晓]上传于[2010年01月25日 21时21分02秒],版权归原创者所有。本文仅代表作者本人观点,与本网站无关。本网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。

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