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期刊论文

PRICE MANIPULATION AND INDUSTRY MOMENTUM—EVIDENCE FROM THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET1

苏冬蔚He Zhongzhi* and Su Dongwei**

中国金融评论,2009,3(4):1~34,-0001,():

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摘要/描述

Recent theoretical studies show that trade-based stock price manipulation is a possible source of the momentum effect. This paper proposes three sets of testable hypotheses and provides empirical evidence for a manipulation-based explanation of momentum. Using weekly data on 14 CITIC industries in the Shanghai A-share market from 1997 to 2006, our analysis of industry momentum shows that cumulative returns fi rst increase then decrease across holding periolds, and the returns monotonically decrease across formation periods. This return pattern is consistent with a so-called "pump and dump scheme, where momentum is created by manipulators and chased by speculators. We attribute the source of momentum to the positive own-autocorrelation, which dominates the cross-autocorrelation effect of industry returns. We also fi nd that momentum profi ts are higher in the bull than in bear market, and most of the profi ts come from the gains of winning industries rather than the losses of losing industries. These empirical results, when related to some welldocumented behavioral biases of Chinese speculators, tell us a possible stock-market manipulation story of momentum.

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【免责声明】以下全部内容由[苏冬蔚]上传于[2011年04月10日 01时02分55秒],版权归原创者所有。本文仅代表作者本人观点,与本网站无关。本网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。

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