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期刊论文

Pipe segment failure dependency analysis and system failure probability estimation

谢里阳Liyang Xie

International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 75(1998)483-488,-0001,():

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摘要/描述

The present paper is mainly concerned with pipe system failure probability estimation. For this purpose, a multiple component dependent failure (MCDF) model is introduced to deal with dependency among pipe segment failures. The MCDF model is directly derived from load-strength interference analysis with the underlying notion that stochastic environment load brings about failure dependency. The influence of pipe segment failure dependency on pipe system failure probability is addressed and a modified system failure probability model is presented. It is also shown that, with regard to a pipe system, the multiple failures of pipe segment leaks might lead to a pipe system disabling leak or even to a break. The probability of pipe system disabling leak or break induced by the imultaneous failures of multiple segment leaks is estimated by means of the MCDF model. The estimation results indicate that pipe system failure probability depends not only on the mean values of the respective segment failure probability random variables, but also on other distribution parameters (e.g., the standard deviations) of them. Pipe system failure probability estimated by means of the modified model is sometimes several times lower than that estimated by the conventional system failure probability model.

【免责声明】以下全部内容由[谢里阳]上传于[2006年04月08日 00时59分32秒],版权归原创者所有。本文仅代表作者本人观点,与本网站无关。本网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。

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