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周炜星

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期刊论文

Importance of positive feedbacks and overconfidence in a self-fulfilling Ising model of financial markets

周炜星Didier Sornette Wei-Xing Zhou

Physica A 370 (2006) 704-726,-0001,():

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摘要/描述

Following a long tradition of physicists who have noticed that the Ising model provides a general background to build realistic models of social interactions, we study a model of financial price dynamics resulting from the collective aggregate decisions of agents. This model incorporates imitation, the impact of external news and private information. It has the structure of a dynamical Ising model in which agents have two opinions (buy or sell) with coupling coefficients, which evolve in time with a memory of how past news have explained realized market returns. We study two versions of the model, which differ on how the agents interpret the predictive power of news. We show that the stylized facts of financial markets are reproduced only when agents are overconfident and mis-attribute the success of news to predict return to herding effects, thereby providing positive feedbacks leading to the model functioning close to the critical point. Our model exhibits a rich multifractal structure characterized by a continuous spectrum of exponents of the power law relaxation of endogenous bursts of volatility, in good agreement with previous analytical predictions obtained with the multifractal random walk model and with empirical facts.

【免责声明】以下全部内容由[周炜星]上传于[2007年11月19日 15时31分25秒],版权归原创者所有。本文仅代表作者本人观点,与本网站无关。本网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。

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