Staggered Shifts policy is increasingly becoming one of the effective methods to solve the commute travel congestion problem in the AM and PM peak periods. In order to implement the policy effectively, it is necessary to evaluate its influence on commuters' travel decisions through travel demand behavior forecasting. By analyzing the commute travel data, a Binary Logit model was developed to predict the employees' commuting preference. Then the acceptability of the Staggered Shifts policy in Beijing city was evaluated. The results indicate that the feasibility of the Staggered Shifts strategy is mainly related to commuters' occupation, work schedules, travel behaviors and some basic socioeconomic attributes. Therefore, it's necessary for government to choose the most suitable job categories and work arrangements, cooperate with related enterprises and departments, and build some corresponding guarantees for the implementing of the policy.

In this paper, the framework of activity-based travel demand forecasting model is presented. And by analyzing the factors which affect the residents' time decisions, two time choice models which can predict the start and end times of a trip respectively are developed. Then the models are estimated and the sensitivity of the model is analyzed from the 2003 Household Travel Survey in Changchun. Furthermore, we predict how people adjust their start time when the travel cost by auto has been added. Finally, the weaknesses of current system are summarized, and the way to improve the approach of the time forecast is put forward.

交通拥挤问题是目前城市社会系统面临的日益严重的问题之一。本文通过对可变工作制、道路拥挤收费、合乘车和电子办公等交通需求管理政策的实施情况和评价指标进行总结论述，证明了从控制交通需求入手，对交通需求进行合理控制和引导，是解决城市交通供需矛盾的根本方法，对于我国推广交通需求管理策略的实施和研究有一定的借鉴意义。

研究基于IC卡系统的出行数据采集方法，获得多方式出行数据，对于掌握居民公交出行时空变化规律，制定有效的交通管理政策、促进公共交通优先发展、解决城市交通拥挤问题具有重要意义。本文应用出行链分析方法，对IC卡数据平台下的基本出行概念、出行链构造方法、各项出行信息的获取方法及必要的补充调查项目进行了深入探讨，并在此基础上剖析了基于IC卡数据调查方法的优缺点，提出了促进我国公交IC卡系统建设和数据平台应用的建议。结果表明，先进的智能交通技术，不但可以实现快速、方便、高效率的出行，而且在出行数据调查、交通系统规划等领域也可以发挥显著作用。

应用基于活动的出行需求预测方法研究了长春市实行鼓励公交策略的可行性。通过分析调查数据和总结以往模型，建立了Logistic形式的出行方式选择模型，用长春市居民出行调查数据进行了参数标定和模型验证。应用已建模型初步分析并评价了鼓励公交策略对居民出行方式的影响。结果表明：建立基于活动的方式选择模型预测城市交通方式结构，可以全面有效地进行交通需求管理策略的评价研究，为交通部门制定管理政策提供依据。