水质的变化受多种不确定因素影响，是一种随机过程。本文分析了水质变化过程中的超标风险性，基于随机点过程理论，构造了水质超标风险分析的成丛随机点过程复合（CSPPC）模型，并应用于深圳市西丽水库出水口断面水质超标风险率估算，由实际资料对其水质超标点过程的分布进行了拟合优度检验，获得满意计算结果。CSPPC理论和方法是非突发性环境风险大小识别的有效途径。

将水质当作随机变量，基于随机点过程理论，构造了水质超阈值风险分析的成丛随机点过程复合（CSPPC）模型，并应用于深圳市深圳河河口段水体DO、COD浓度超阈值的风险率估算，由实际资料对该河段水体DO、COD浓度超阈值点过程的分布进行了拟合优度试验，获得满意计算结果。

Hydrological forecasting can provide the basis for dealing with the conflict between flood control and water use. This paper proposes a flood and sediment forecasting method for rivers by deriving an energy equation which describes the conservation of potential slope, kinetic slope, and friction slope of a river reach. The equation contains an additional term, the rate of change of stage, which has a significant effect on the propagation of flood waves, as compared with the Saint-Venant momentum equation. The energy equation has been found to provide more accurate results in the hydraulic calculation of the Han River, China, than the Saint-Venant momentum equation. Based on this energy equation, an improved diffusive model (IDM) was derived. By modelling the flood process for the Yellow River, China, the IDM was compared with the classical diffusive model (CDM) showing that the IDM gives better results. The time series form of IDM with time-variant parameters was used for real-time flood and sediment forecasting of the Yellow River. The recursive ordinary least-squares (ROLS) approach, improved by introducing an effective matrix, was used for on-line identification of parameters.

该文建立了一个以东江流域水资源合理利用为目标，考虑防洪、供水、航运、压咸等约束，采用大系统“分解协调”原理，运用逐步宽容约束法及递阶分析法，通过三大水库与河道、区间径流联合调度，进行自流域至供水行业的多层次优化的水资源优化配置模型。在特枯水年来水情况下，对2020年水平年水资源进行优化调配，得出各个用水户两种不同初始条件下的配水结果。说明只有在三大水库初始蓄满的条件下，才能满足特枯年各个用水户2020水平年的需水要求。

采用珠江三角洲网河区数十年来的人类活动和水文特征资料，通过分析人类活动的水文响应特征，发现该地区近10年多来水文情势发生了显著异变。主要表现在河道人工采沙以及大洪水冲刷导致河床下切，部分断面水位流量关系异变。部分河段冲淤特征倒转，汉河分水分沙比发生变化。围垦、桥梁、码头建设以及水闸的不合理调度使得水量集中，蓄滞洪能力减小，河道流量增加。三角洲上部河床剧烈下切，汇流速度加快；而口门多呈淤积状态，加之海平面上升，潮流项托阻水，三角洲腹地水位抬升，洪涝威胁加剧。剧烈人类活动是珠江三角洲网河区水文与地貌特征变异的直接原因。