在全面综述分析国内外文献的基础上，提出和建立了一个基于DEM的分布式流域水文物理模型，并用来模拟小流域的降雨径流时空变化过程，得到了较好的模拟结果。论文分为模型结构和应用检验两部分。本文论述模型结构和数值解法，详细分析植物截留，蒸散发，融雪，下渗，地表地下径流方向和洪水演进等水文物理过程。

A nonparametric kernel estimation model is proposed and developed for estimating low flow quantiles. Based on annual minimum low flow data and Monte Carlo simulation tests, the descriptive and predictive ability of the proposed model is compared with that of Weibull models. The results indicate that it has small bias and root mean square error in low flow quantile estimates. Application of the model to data from the Blue Nile has shown that the nonparametric approach is a viable alternative to the Weibull models.

Reservoirs play a vital role in flood prevention and disaster relief in China. The objectives of the project described in this study were to establish a reservoir flood forecasting and control system and to design and develop corresponding application software. This paper introduces the current reservoir flood control and operation practice with this system in China. Using modern integration technologies, an application software for this Reservoir Flood Forecasting and Control System (RFFCS) has been developed and updated since 1995. The structure of the system and its main functions, telemetric data acquisition and processing, the hydrological database, flood forecasting, and reservoir operation components are described in detail. The working environment, key technologies and standardization design are emphasized. Having been successfully applied to 212 reservoirs in China, the software has proved to be reliable and user-friendly. In its latest version, the software supports reservoir flood forecasting and flood dispatch decisions. The future research direction and the extension of the software function are also discussed.

A two-parameter monthly water balance model is developed. The model is used to simulate the runoff of seventy subcatchments in the Dongjiang, Ganjiang and Hanjiang Basins in the south of China. Application results show that the model efficiencies are high in both the calibration and erification periods. Comparative study of monthly water balance models indicates that the proposed two-parameter model as well as a five-parameter model performs. It is suggested that this twoparameter model can be easily and efficiently incorporated in the water resources planning program and the climate impact studies to simulate monthly runoff conditions in the humid and semi-humid regions.

本文综述陆地表面水文过程，大尺度水文模型及其与气候模型联结耦合研究的最新进展和存在问题，介绍GEWEX-GAME研究项目的目标和内容，科学价值和现实意义及其在我国开展研究的计划。