重庆港口货物吞吐量预测及物流效率分析
首发时间:2024-02-29
摘要:随着经济全球化的不断深入和我国"一带一路"战略的逐渐完善,贸易往来的加深为我国港口的发展带来更多的机遇,港口货物吞吐量也逐渐成为衡量国家竞争力的重要指标。本文提出了一种基于GM(1,1)-逐步回归模型来对重庆港口货物吞吐量进行预测,研究结果表明,GM(1,1)-逐步回归模型的相对平均误差为7.0494%,拟合程度较好具有较好的应用前景。但通过应用EDA(数据包络分析)对重庆港口物流效率进行分析评价,发现重庆港口现有发展水平不能满足港口吞吐量的发展需求,其原因是物流资源投入冗余较多,故针对重庆港口发展现状提出建议来提高港口物流效率。
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Chongqing Port Cargo Throughput Forecast and Logistics Efficiency Analysis
Abstract:With the deepening of economic globalization and the gradual improvement of China\'s "One Belt, One Road" strategy, the deepening of trade has brought more opportunities for the development of China\'s ports, and the port cargo throughput has gradually become an important indicator to measure the competitiveness of the country. In this paper, a GM(1,1)-stepwise regression model is proposed to predict the cargo throughput of Chongqing port, and the results show that the relative average error of the GM(1,1)-stepwise regression model is 7.0494%, and the fitting degree is good and has a good application prospect. However, through the analysis and evaluation of the logistics efficiency of Chongqing port by applying EDA (data envelopment analysis), it is found that the current development level of Chongqing port cannot meet the development needs of port throughput, and the reason is that there is a lot of redundancy in logistics resources, so suggestions are put forward to improve the logistics efficiency of Chongqing port according to the development status of Chongqing port.
Keywords: Throughput prediction;Data envelopment analysis;Stepwise regression model; Logistical efficiency
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