20世纪90年代, 预测领域取得了比较丰硕的研究成果。预测方法除主观判断方法外, 主要有单变量方法和多变量方法。单变量方法在实际中使用最多, 主要涉及分数差分模型、结构模型、贝叶斯预测方法。多元回归方法仍是最常用的多变量预测方法, 但对经济时间序列拟合多元回归模型存在一些问题, 于是人们对向量回归模型进行了大量的研究。本文着重分析了国外学者关于预测方法的选择以及非线性模型的研究动态。

本文首先分析了改革开放以来我国城乡居民收入差距变化的规律, 即城乡居民收入大幅度上升的同时, 收入差距经历了一个先缩小后扩大的过程。我们认为在现有的生产力条件下, 城乡居民收入差距仍处于比较合理的范围之内。然后通过建立多元回归模型分析了影响城乡居民收入差距变化的主要原因, 即第一产业增加值占GDP 的比重、国家财政对农业支出的增长率、乡镇企业职工增长率和城镇居民人均年生活费收入增长率。

本文以国家统计局提供的第五次人口普查1‰抽样原始数据, 对2000 年我国失业人口和失业率进行分析, 旨在了解失业人口的性别、年龄、失业类型、受教育程度、城乡与地区分布等结构特征, 以及失业率在性别、年龄、受教育程度、城乡与地区等主要方面表现出来的特征。

The function income dist ribution means that the productive achievements are dist ributed acco rding to the role or con tribu tion made by the various productive factors in social production. Whether it is reasonable or not directly affects the optimal allocation of the productive factors. The paper has m adem easurement on the revenue shares by labor and capital in nationalincome since the econom ic reform in ou rcountry, and analyzed the reason for the arising of labor share by economet ricmodel.

The registration of costs of ownership transfer of non-financial assets according to the 1993 SNA is very clear-cut. The costs of ownership transfer have to be registered as part of gross fixed capital formation. Singapore Department of Statistics suggests that the transfer costs should be treated as current expenses rather than capital investment. We think that the recommended treatments for the costs of ownership transfer in 1993 SNA is reasonable.

The paper gives a comprehensive introduction to the national economic accounting matrix with environment accounts (NAMEA) developed by Statistics Netherlands in 1994, studies the difference between NAMEA and SEEA, and indicates some defects of the NAMEA.