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【期刊论文】Determination of Original Infection Source of H7N9 Avian Influenza by Dynamical Model
靳祯, zhang juan, jin zhen et. al
Scientific Reports ,-0001,():
-1年11月30日
H7N9, a newly emerging virus in China, travels among poultry and human. Although H7N9 has not aroused massive outbreaks, recurrence in the second half of 2013 makes it essential to control the spread. It is believed that the most effective control measure is to locate the original infection source and cut off the source of infection from human. However, the original infection source and the internal transmission mechanism of the new virus are not totally clear. In order to determine the original infection source of H7N9, we establish a dynamical model with migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry and human population, and view migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry as original infection source respectively to fit the true dynamics during the 2013 pandemic. By comparing the date fitting results and corresponding Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values, we conclude that migrant birds are most likely the original infection source. In addition, we obtain the basic reproduction number in poultry and carry out sensitivity analysis of some parameters.
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【期刊论文】Pattern formation in a spatial S–I model with non-linear incidence rates
靳祯
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-1年11月30日
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【期刊论文】Spatial organization and evolution period of the epidemic model using cellular automata
靳祯
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-1年11月30日
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【期刊论文】The persistence in a Lotka–Volterra competition systems with impulsive
靳祯
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-1年11月30日
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靳祯
,-0001,():
-1年11月30日
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