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2010年10月19日

【期刊论文】A dual-interval vertex analysis method and its application to environmental decision making under uncertainty

李永平, Y.P. Li a, *, G.H. Huang b, c, , P. Guo c, Z.F. Yang d, S.L. Nie e

European Journal of Operational Research 200(2010)536-550,-0001,():

-1年11月30日

摘要

In this study, a dual-interval vertex analysis (DIVA) method is developed, through incorporating the vertex method within an interval-parameter programming framework. The developed DIVA method can tackle uncertainties presented as dual intervals that exist in the objective function and the left- and right-hand sides of the modeling constraints. An interactive algorithm and a vertex analysis approach are proposed for solving the DIVA model. Solutions under an associated a-cut level can be generated by solving a series of deterministic submodels. They can help quantify relationships between the objective function value and the membership grade, which is meaningful for supporting in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives as well as those between system optimality and reliability. A management problem in terms of regional air pollution control is studied to illustrate applicability of the proposed approach. The results indicate that useful solutions for planning the air quality management practices have been generated. They can help decision makers to identify desired pollution-abatement strategies with minimized costs and maximized environmental efficiencies.

Air quality, Decision making, Dual interval, Environment, Fuzzy programming, Optimization, Vertex analysis, Uncertainty

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2010年10月19日

【期刊论文】A robust interval-based minimax-regret analysis approach for the identification of optimal water-resources-allocation strategies under uncertainty

李永平, Y.P. Li a, ∗, G.H. Huangb, , S.L. Niec

Resources, Conservation and Recycling 54(2009)86-96,-0001,():

-1年11月30日

摘要

In this study, a robust interval-based minimax-regret analysis (RIMA) method is developed and applied to the identification of optimal water-resources-allocation strategies under uncertainty. The developed RIMAapproachcan address uncertainties with multiple presentations.Moreover, it can be usedfor analyzing all possible scenarios associated with different system costs/benefits and risk levels without making assumptions on probabilistic distributions for random variables. In its solution process, an intervalelement cost/benefit matrix can be transformed into an interval-element regret matrix, such that the decision makers can identify desired strategies based on inexact minimax regret (IMMR) criterion. Moreover, the fuzzy decision space is delimited into a more robust one through dimensional enlargement of the original fuzzy constraints. The developed method is applied to a case study of planning water resources allocation under uncertainty. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can help decision makers identify desired strategies for water-resources allocation with a compromise between maximized system benefit and minimized system-failure risk.

Decision making, Fuzzy sets, Interval-based, Minimax regret, Planning, Robust programming, Uncertainty, Water resources

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2010年10月19日

【期刊论文】Fuzzy-stochastic-based violation analysis method for planning water resources management systems with uncertain information

李永平, Y.P. Li *, G.H. Huang

Information Sciences 179(2009)4261-4276,-0001,():

-1年11月30日

摘要

In this study, a fuzzy-stochastic-based violation analysis (FSVA) approach is developed for the planning of water resources management systems with uncertain information, based on a multistage fuzzy-stochastic integer programming (FSIP) model. In FSVA, a number of violation variables for the objective and constraints are allowed, such that in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among economic objective, satisfaction degree, and constraint-violation risk can be facilitated. Besides, the developed method can deal with uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and fuzzy sets; it can also reflect the dynamics in terms of decisions for water-allocation and surplus-flow diversion, through transactions at discrete points of a complete scenario set over a multistage context. The developed FSVA method is applied to a case study of water resources management within a multi-stream, multi-reservoir and multi-period context. The results indicate that the satisfaction degrees and system benefits would be different under varied violation levels; moreover, different violation levels can also lead to changed water-allocation and surplus-flow diversion plans. Violation analyses are also conducted to demonstrate that violating different constraints have different effects on system benefit and satisfaction degree.

Decision making, Fuzzy programming, Planning, Stochastic, Uncertain information, Violation analysis, Water resources

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2010年10月19日

【期刊论文】An integrated two-stage optimization model for the development of long-term waste-management strategies

李永平, Y.P. Li a, b, *, G.H. Huang b, c, Z.F. Yang a, S.L. Nie d

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 392(2008)175-186,-0001,():

-1年11月30日

摘要

In this study, an integrated two-stage optimization model (ITOM) is developed for the planning of municipal solid waste (MSW) management in the City of Regina, Canada. The ITOM improves upon the existing optimization approaches with advantages in uncertainty reflection, dynamic analysis, policy investigation, and risk assessment. It can help analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised policy targets are violated, and address issues concerning planning for a cost-effective diversion program that targets on the prolongation of the existing landfill. Moreover, violations for capacity and diversion constraints are allowed under a range of significance levels, which reflect the tradeoffs between system-cost and constraint-violation risk. The modeling results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various environmental, socio-economic, and system-reliability conditions. They are valuable for supporting the adjustment (or justification) of the existing waste-management practices, the long-term capacity planning for the city's waste-management system, and the identification of desired policies regarding waste generation and management.

Decision making, Environment, Management, Solid waste, Stochastic programming, Two-stage optimization

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2010年10月19日

【期刊论文】Inexact multistage stochastic integer programming for water resources management under uncertainty

李永平, Y.P. Lia, b, G.H. Huangb, c, S.L. Nied, L. Liua, e

Journal of Environmental Management 88(2008)93-107,-0001,():

-1年11月30日

摘要

In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic integer programming (IMSIP) method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. This method incorporates techniques of inexact optimization and multistage stochastic programming within an integer programming framework. It can deal with uncertainties expressed as both probabilities and discrete intervals, and reflect the dynamics in terms of decisions for water allocation through transactions at discrete points of a complete scenario set over a multistage context. Moreover, the IMSIP can facilitate analyses of the multiple policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties when the promised targets are violated as well as the economies-of-scale in the costs for surplus water diversion. A case study is provided for demonstrating the applicability of the developed methodology. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated for both binary and continuous variables. For all scenarios under consideration, corrective actions can be undertaken dynamically under various pre-regulated policies and can thus help minimize the penalties and costs. The IMSIP can help water resources managers to identify desired system designs against water shortage and for flood control with maximized economic benefit and minimized systemfailure risk.

Decision making, Environment, Inexact optimization, Integer programming, Multistage, Stochastic analysis, Uncertainty, Water resources

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  • 李永平 邀请

    北京大学,北京

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