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2011年06月27日

【期刊论文】古风暴学研究进展*

范代读, 徐过冬, Kam-biu Liu

地球科学进展,2007,22(12):1274~1280,-0001,():

-1年11月30日

摘要

古风暴学是始于20世纪90年代的一门新兴学科,通过研究风暴活动的地质记录和历史文献资料,恢复器测之前几百年至数千年前的热带气旋活动规律。经过十几年的发展,逐渐形成一套包括研究领域、方法、技术与手段等比较完整的理论体系,成为第四纪古气候研究和过去全球变化的重要组成部分。古风暴学研究的替代指标包括:文字记载、特征的风暴事件沉积、海相化石组合、同位素地球化学组成等。这些指标单独使用时都有一定局限性。寻找新的替代指标,并运用多种指标综合分析方法提高古风暴事件的分辨率和可信度,是今后该学科发展的重要方向。已有的研究多侧重于古风暴频数的研究,今后应充分利用现代风暴潮理论的新进展,通过数值模拟与替代指标研究相结合,更准确地恢复古风暴强度。同时,应加强古风暴活动的全球对比研究,以揭示风暴活动与全球气候变化的关系,为在全球不断变暖背景下台风活动的情景预测提供依据。

古风暴学, 热带气旋, 替代指标, 风暴沉积, 历史文献

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2011年06月27日

【期刊论文】中国沿海响应气候变化的复杂性

范代读, 李从先

气侯变化研究进展,2005,1(3):111~114,-0001,():

-1年11月30日

摘要

在过去的一个世纪,中国海岸已明显观测到气候变暖和海平面上升所造成的危害。气候变化对中国海岸带的影响和海岸系统对气候变化的适应性具有明显的区域性差异。海岸自然条件复杂,海岸不同生态环境的自修复能力各异。人类活动对海岸带的影响巨大,在适应气候变化方面具有明显的能动性,适应能力受社会经济发展水平的制约,从而具有明显的区域特征。海岸系统与气候变化之间并不是简单的线性关系。未来气候变暖和海平面加速上升无疑将加大对海岸带的影响,但目前尚难以确定海岸生态系统的气候变化阈值。

海岸, 气候变化, 海平面上升, 脆弱性, 适应性, 区域性差异

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2011年06月27日

【期刊论文】三峡大坝建成后长江输沙量的减少及其对长江三角洲的影响*

范代读, 李从先, 杨守业, 赵娟

第四纪研究,2004,24(5):495~500,-0001,():

-1年11月30日

摘要

三峡大坝建成之后,大量泥沙滞留于库区,出库泥沙量减少,坝下河床冲刷而提供相当数量的泥沙,支流湖泊供沙也发生变化,这将使进入河口地区的泥沙有所减少。三峡大坝以上长江干流和支流建设新的大坝,南水北调、封山育林、退耕还林以及减少水土流失都将进一步减少长江进入河口地区的泥沙。由此估计,三峡大坝建成后的百年内长江输入河口地区的泥沙约为2 0×108。2 5×108∥a;冰后期长江三角洲形成和发育期司的长江年均输沙量为l 84×108。2 28×108t。二者的数值相当接近,然而与近50年的观测(4 33×108∥a)相差甚远,长江流域的气候变化和人类活动可能是造成这一现象的原因。文章着重说明中国和长江上游人口的增长、种植作物的改变可能是水土流失、长江泥沙量增长的主要原因。

长江三角洲 三峡大坝 输沙量 中国人口

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2011年06月27日

【期刊论文】Variations in Tropical-Cyclone Activity and Storm-Surge Devastationsince the 1950s in China

范代读, Daidu Fan

,-0001,():

-1年11月30日

摘要

Tropical-cyclone data and the statistics of tropical-storm casualties and damagesince the 1950s were collected and analyzed. The results show that annual and decadelongvariations are obvious in the annual number of tropical cyclones generated over thewestern North Pacific (including the South China Sea), those making landfall inmainland China, and those that induced disastrous storm surges. It is worthy notingthat these variations are not always in phase. For example, an active year for more cyclonesin the western North Pacific may have fewer landing in China, or vice versa.Also, the tropical cyclones that make landfall do not always cause storm-surge disasters.It sometimes happens that a year with more but weaker tropical cyclones making landfallhas fewer storm-surge events than a year with fewer but more intense storms. In thelong term, the tropical cyclone landfall probability has been gradually increasing sincethe mid 1960s. Over the past twenty years, major storm-surge disasters have occurredmore frequently but there have been fewer overall tropical cyclones. This has beenlinked to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, in that fewer but more intensetropical cyclones influence China in the El Niño year.The intensity of disastrous storm-surges is obviously site-specific, strongly related tothe intensity and tracks of tropical cyclones reaching land, local tidal ranges and tidalphase, the standard of coastal region infrastructure and public education regarding offlood dangers. Since global warming can be expected to increase tropical cyclone intensityand storm surges, some countermeasures should be strictly carried out, includingperfecting the tropical cyclone and storm-surge warning services, elevating the standardsof coastal infrastructures, and improving public awareness of disaster defense.

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2011年06月27日

【期刊论文】Cross-shore variations in morphodynamic processes of anopen-coast mudflat in the Changjiang Delta, China:With an emphasis on storm impacts

范代读, Daidu Fana, *, Yanxia Guoa, Ping Wangb, John Z. Shic

Continental Shelf Research 26 (2006) 517–538,-0001,():

-1年11月30日

摘要

On the open coast of the Changjiang Delta, waves temporally play their dominant roles in shaping the tidal-flat profile,especially during typhoons. Detailed analyses are presented of the variations in grain sizes of surface sediments and bedlevel, measured in the summer of 1999 at Nanhui mudflats, south flank of the Changjiang Delta, China. Cross-shorevariations in bed level are distinctly site-specific in response to waves. The site-specific erosion rates are related to localwater depth, sediment properties, vegetation, and exposure time per semidiurnal tidal cycle. A great difference existsbetween the higher and lower intertidal mudflats bordered at the mean sea level (MSL): the higher section is dominated bycontinuous accretion, while the lower section is characteristic of dynamic changes in erosion and accretion phases. Swellsplay their more important roles in shaping the profile than local wind-driven waves at the study mudflat, where swellspropagate onshore without great barriers’ damping and local winds are not highly strengthened by distant typhoons.Storm processes are greatly modulated by tides. The magnitude of erosion is greater by a weak storm during spring tidesthan a strong storm during neap tides. Significant changes in entrainment capacity of tidal currents from neap to springtides account for the different erosion and accretion models of the intertidal mudflat.

Intertidal mudflat, Saltmarsh, Typhoon, Swells, Morphodynamics, Sediment transport, Open-coast, Changjiang Delta

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